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Journal of Public Administration (JOPA)

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ISSN : 2
Determinants of Inflation in Ethiopia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

Author: Mustefa Bati and Kedir Jemal

Affiliation: School of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Haramaya University

Source: Journal of Public Administration, 2024-03-22 12:45:03

Accreditation: Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET)



Abstract: Determinants of Inflation in Ethiopia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

Inflation brings economic instability and can aggravate the level of poverty for any country if not controlled properly. This study aims to analyse the major determinants that affect inflation in Ethiopia by using secondary data over a 41 year-time series (1980 to 2020). Methodologically, an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model was used to analyse the long-run and short-run determinants of inflation. Findings reveal that in the long run, gross domestic product, broad money supply and terms of trade are positive determinants of inflation while government expenditure determines it negatively and significantly. Similarly in the short run, money supply and exchange rate determine inflation positively and significantly while government expenditure, interest rate and terms of trade determine it negatively and significantly. On the other hand, the speed of adjustment has a value of -0.719531, which indicates the convergence of the inflatio